Toy Story 4 takes off this weekend in North America and eight major international markets, where distribution insiders tell Screen it could gross $90m-$100m led by the UK, Mexico and China.
Disney sources are playing coy with North American projections and peg the fourth entry in Pixar’s smash franchise to a $140m-plus launch, contributing to a possible $240m worldwide debut. That could be the low end if North America, the UK, China and family-friendly Mexico open higher than projections or comps to Toy Story 3.
Toy Story 4 launches this weekend in approximately 64% of the international landscape. It opens on June 20 in Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Russia and Argentina, as well as another 22 territories including Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Chile, and Israel. The following day brings debuts in the China, the UK, Mexico, Spain, India, and Indonesia, among others.
Toy Story 3 generated approximately $82m from the aforementioned major territories across several summer weekends in 2010. That equates to $96m in real terms and does not include the balance of markets, where box office has boomed in the last decade in places like Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand and Vietnam in particular.
Nowhere has box office grown as much as it has in China, where Toy Story 3 opened on $9.5m. The new entry could double that amount. The sterling $32m UK launch made waves back in July 2010 and another healthy debut could be on the cards given universally positive reviews for the animation.
Josh Cooley directs Toy Story 4 and a familiar voice cast features Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, John Ratzenberger and the late Don Rickles, as well as Keanu Reeves, Jordan Peele, Annie Potts, Tony Hale, Keegan-Michael Key, and Christina Hendricks.