Last year's Hollywood blockbusters made a $1.9bn loss, claims a report from new analyst Global Media Intelligence (GMI).
The study - Do Movies Make Money' - suggests that payments for star talent shot up to unrealistic levels despite a recovery at the box office.
This year, a 12.5% decline in DVD sales compared to 2006 are likely to accelerate the losses.
The figures cover the 132 medium-to-big budget films released in 2006 - down from a profit of $2.2bn for the blockbusters of 2004.
GMI is a division of UK-based analyst company Screen Digest and is aimed at institutional investors in the US.