The market around Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) has always centred on completed films rather than pre-sales packages, and while Toronto will be business as usual in that regard, it will play out under the far-reaching implications of the ongoing dual Hollywood strikes.
Industrial action by SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) have caused a drastic production slowdown over the summer on US projects and others featuring US members of these unions, fuelling the expectation that buyers will need to fill empty slots, particularly towards the latter stages of 2024.
The work stoppages – now approaching their ninth and 19th weeks for the writers and actors, respectively – have also by and large put the kibosh on star attendance. SAG-AFTRA strike rules forbid talent from promoting any studio or streamer film, while those from independent features can attend in theory if the union grants the production an interim agreement. Adam Driver was pretty much the starriest A-lister who attended Venice to support Michael Mann’s Ferrari, which is with Neon in North America and got an interim agreement.
And therein lies a thorny issue for the industry. TIFF is shaping up to be a sellers’ market as distributors look to fill their 2024 and 2025 pipelines, yet SAG-AFTRA’s strike rules have inadvertently complicated matters. The union has been wading through hundreds of interim agreement applications by producers and has been issuing them sporadically. Some producers have been waiting since July to hear back and even when they do, the 70-page agreement template sets alarm bells ringing.
By stipulating that the parties be bound by the terms SAG-AFTRA is demanding of the Hollywood companies, the union has set the cat among the pigeons. The terms represent a significant upgrade on the last three-year contract, which expired in July, and many relate to compensation, which would push up the cost of productions.
In anticipation of this, Screen International understands that many sales agents have refused to sign interim agreements allowing cast to attend TIFF. “It’s totally up in the air, which is ridiculous, obviously, but that is the state of play,” says AGC Studios chief executive Stuart Ford. “We have not signed interim agreements on our TIFF films after a number of major buyers have made it clear that they would either refuse or certainly think twice about buying a finished film that has the baggage of an interim agreement. It’s unfortunate because I think SAG-AFTRA’s intentions were good in saying they would give interim agreements to genuinely independent films.”
While nobody wants to see actors staying away from a festival and everybody who spoke to Screen expressed sympathy for striking actors and wished for a speedy resolution, sellers remain focused on maximising the sales potential of their completed titles. “It’s more or less the primary reason for going to the festival,” says Ford, who will be looking to engage North American buyers on Anna Kendrick and Chris Pine’s feature directing debuts — Woman Of The Hour and Poolman, respectively — and Richard Linklater’s Venice selection Hit Man, which has earned strong reviews out of the Lido.
Solidarity in numbers
Actor-directors who could attend a world premiere wearing their director hats — the Directors Guild of America signed a new three-year deal with the Hollywood companies in June — are likely to stay away in solidarity with the 160,000 striking actors. Michael Keaton, who made a rare foray behind the camera on Knox Goes Away, will not fly into Toronto for the world premiere. “Michael really wanted to attend,” says Nick Gordon of Brookstreet Pictures, one of the film’s producers and financiers. “He’s very proud of [Knox Goes Away] but he’s got to maintain his solidarity with his fellow actors and we completely respect that.
“That said, the film is terrific on its own,” Gordon says. “We think it’s going to be a big draw for the first weekend at TIFF.”
“It is unfortunate for the talents in question who have all made what may turn out to be career-defining leaps of faith on these films… but there’s a commercial reality to the situation,” says Ford, who would have preferred to be joined in Toronto by Kendrick, Pine and Glen Powell, who co-wrote Hit Man with Linklater and stars in the dark comedy. “That said, we’re excited about Toronto and we’re very optimistic on the sale prospects of our three films.”
“I feel so bad for the filmmakers and actors who work for years on a movie,” says producer Ram Bergman, Rian Johnson’s T-Street co-founder who has Netflix’s Sundance acquisition Fair Play and the world premiere of MGM’s American Fiction in TIFF. “These movies were challenging to make and you want to give them the best chance to perform. But there’s nothing we can do.”
“In terms of new projects that we typically pre-sell to finance,” says Highland Film Group CEO Arianne Fraser, “we have paused on those until the union settles with AMPTP [Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, the Hollywood companies’ contract negotiator], so this is a good opportunity to focus on our completed content.”
Highland will screen Blood For Dust, which premiered in Tribeca and stars Kit Harington, Josh Lucas and Scoot McNairy, for distributors. Fraser will also be talking to buyers on available territories such as North America and the UK on Joe Carnahan’s survival thriller Not Without Hope starring Zachary Levi from the Shazam! franchise. It wrapped at the end of June, before the actors strike took effect, and is in post.
Pre-market conversations indicate buyers will make a strong showing in Toronto, even if acquisition teams are leaner, in keeping with the eternal need to keep down costs as the business confronts an endless parade of challenges from the rise of streamers to the pandemic to the strikes.
Contrary to speculation by SAG-AFTRA top brass, the streamers will be on the ground looking for opportunistic buys, along with the studios. That leaves smaller buyers to manage as best they can. Their plight has led some to ponder the future of the distribution model itself.
At time of writing the first new major pre-sales package to emerge was The Beast at WME Independent. Samuel Jackson is attached to play the US president holed up in a high-tech, souped-up tank of a limousine during an attempted coup who must try to save the United States and the life of a Secret Service agent (Joel Kinnaman, in talks). James Madigan will direct the thriller from Unified Pictures, Fifth Season and Film 44, which was packaged before the SAG-AFTRA strike and has secured an interim agreement.
Closing the gap
Arianna Bocco, the industry consultant and former IFC Films president, says: “There’s a disconnect between how distributors are generating revenue and what the expectations are for films in terms of how much buyers must pay in order to recoup the number they need.”
Bocco concedes smaller buyers can operate within the gaps, making offers and closing a deal weeks or months “after the market has spoken”. She continues: “There is opportunity in a market like this for buyers to come in and make an offer to purchase these films and make a little money. But if you start to get into bidding wars and you’re a little distributor, you just can’t do it.”
The falling away of the middle ground has been brought into sharp focus by the ongoing strikes, with CEOs earning tens of millions of dollars a year while most actors are paid scale and struggle to afford health insurance. A recent post by the WGA revealed the relatively tiny cost to the major Hollywood companies were they to accede to the union’s terms. The example was given of Disney having to pay an extra $72m a year, which represents less than one-tenth of one percent of the company’s $82.7bn in annual revenues.
“It’s not costing Hollywood very much,” says Bocco. “It’s probably going to impact the independent sector more than Hollywood companies. Costs are going to go up for independent films too, so independent buyers will have to pay more for some of these movies. The question is, is it sustainable, and how do we make it better so that everyone wins?”
Were the strikes to last into November, the American Film Market in Santa Monica will be impacted. Nobody particularly wanted to talk about that at press time, but the subject will loom large in TIFF.
Packaging is nigh on impossible during the strikes, and producers have bemoaned the time it takes to get the production go-ahead through an interim agreement. Additionally they worry that it will be tough to hold on to talent once the strikes end and shooting resumes, when offers will come flying in from studios and streamers as Hollywood heads into a production logjam.
“There’s a sluggishness in what’s getting financed,” notes Tiffany Boyle, president, packaging and sales at Ramo Law. Financiers are skittish, unwilling to commit even to packages with interim agreements — and worry they may not hold onto elements once new union terms apply and Hollywood races back into production.
For now, with TIFF kicking off and dozens of acquisition titles available, the hope is there will be some entrepreneurial players who spot an opportunity. There may not be A-listers on the red carpets, but this could give smaller films a chance to shine.
Veteran producer Celine Rattray of Maven Screen Media will be attending with Unicorns, Sally El Hosaini’s follow-up to last year’s TIFF opening film The Swimmers. Unicorns shot under a British Equity contract so the cast will be able to support it. “Our film is a beautiful and moving cross-cultural romance,” says Rattray, who also produced TIFF premiere The Burial and is an executive producer on Venice selection Tatami.
Rattray added, ”We see Unicorns playing to a wide audience. The major festivals like TIFF are so important in terms of launching these kinds of indie films that have strong crossover appeal. They are a real source of oxygen.”
Laurie May, co-president and co-founder at Toronto-based Elevation Pictures — which has Canadian distribution rights to TIFF selection Dumb Money — agrees the situation could benefit small gems. “There are enough exciting films playing, with quality directors and some talent attending,” she says. “You won’t catch a wave from George Clooney, but there should be something to satisfy everyone.”
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