Global box office will reach $34.7bn in 2026 according to revised estimates from UK-based film data and insights specialist Gower Street Analytics, after an initial prediction of $35bn.
The decrease on the original figure, first published in December 2025, is the result of a disappointing New Year period and first quarter in China, revised down by approximately $550m from $7.1bn to $6.6bn. The revised figure represents an 11% decrease year-on-year, and the Chinese New Year holiday week generated the weakest result of any post-pandemic year.
Gower Street has increased its estimate for the international market, excluding China, from $18bn to $18.4bn, owing to multiple local breakout titles around the world.
The estimate for the North American market has been revised down slightly from $9.9bn to $9.8bn, owing to underperforming holdovers from 2025 at the start of 2026. Titles that did not match Gower Street’s earlier predictions were Universal’s Wicked: For Good and Disney’s Avatar: Fire And Ash. Both were predicted to perform in line with their previous franchise installments, and combined delivered $160m less in holdover box office than Wicked and Avatar: The Way Of Water.
A $9.8bn 2026 result would still represent a 10% increase on 2025 and an 11% increase on 2024. However, it represents a 15% deficit against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
A $34.7bn global box office in 2026 would mean a 3% increase year-on-year (4% increase at current exchange rates) from 2025, and a 16% increase from 2024 (10% at current exchange rates). The 2026 revised estimate is 13% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years at current exchange rates.
Local hits
The projection for the international market (excluding China) sees an increase of approximately $350m, driven by local hits including The King’s Warden in South Korea (the highest-grossing film of all time in the territory), Sunshine Women’s Choir in Taiwan (the country’s best performing local film of all time), Torrente, Presidente in Spain, and December holdover Buen Camino in Italy. The new $18.4bn projection represents a 6% increase on 2025 (8% at current exchange rates); a 19% increase against 2024 (11% increase at current exchange rates); and is just 9% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years at current exchange rates.
The revised prediction comes on the eve of the global industry gathering in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the official convention of Cinema United, which runs April 13-16.
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