A new report from Olswang SPI commissioned by Motion Picture Association has found that a US federal production would generate approximately $125bn in addition production expense from 2027 to 2035.
The report, Economic Impact Of A Proposed US Federal Production Incentive, published on Tuesday and endorsed by the pro-incentive industry umbrella group U.S. Film & TV Production Coalition representing studios, guilds, agencies and vendors, comes in the wake of recent statements by president Trump in favour of an incentive that has attracted bipartisan support.
The study said that an incentive could contribute $249.1bn in total gross value over the eight-year period; an average of 143,500 full time equivalent total jobs supported annually across the country; and $133.1bn in additional total labour income. The report’s economic model is predicated on a specific scenario that the incentive would take the form of a 20% transferable tax credit with uplifts, available only to US residents, and based on a $1m minimum spend threshold.
The study said the incentive was likely to be “stackable” combining with existing incentives in 39 US states along the lines of the incentives infrastructure in Canada and Australia.
The parameters assume that the US share of global film production spend could nearly double from current levels and reach 65% by 2030 based on FilmLA research and 3.7% forecast annual growth in global spend based on government statistics. The study notes that in 2025 the US share of $13.7bn global film spend reached 34% while the share of $27.7bn television spend reached 42%, according to a 2026 report by intelligence platform ProdPro.
Were an incentive not to pass through Congress, the US share of global film spend could decline to 25%, a drop of nine percentage points or more than 26%.
MPA chairman and CEO Charles Rivkin unveiled the report at a virtual press conference on Tuesday and said, “A federal incentive would be a gamechanger for our industry.”
The report was endorsed by Trump’s special ambassador to Hollywood Jon Voight as well as producer Steven Paul and Scott Karol of SP Media Group, California Representative Laura Friedman, FilmUSA president Katie Pryor, IFTA president and CEO Jackie Brenneman, IATSE, Teamsters, talent agencies and the guilds.
Hollywood sources who spoke this week at Toronto International Film Festival said they thought it was highly unlikely a bill would come before Congress before the November midterm elections.
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