Global cinema box office takings will drop 5% in 2024 compared to 2023, according to analytics firm Gower Street Analytics, due to lack of product.
The data firm predicts a $31.5bn global box office for the year, down from the estimated $33.4bn for 2023.
“Given that we lost 50% of production time in 2023, the anticipated 5% year-on-year decrease in 2023 is not indicative of a declining interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability,” said Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos.
“In fact, as July 2023 marked a record-breaking month at the global box office, we know that there is a robust audience demand for compelling theatrical releases.”
The drop will be most keenly felt in North America, where takings are predicted to drop 11.1% from $9bn in 2023 to $8bn in 2024, according to the forecast.
International takings without China will fall 7.1% from $16.8bn to $15.6bn; while China’s box office will rise a forecasted 3.9%, from $7.6bn this year to $7.9bn in 2024.
The 2024 global projection would put the year down 20% against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019), with the North American market down 30% over the same time. The international market (excluding China) would be down 21% against that period; but up 12% on 2022.
Within that international scope, Europe and the Middle East would suffer slightly more than other areas, dropping 23% against 2017-19 and 9% against 2023; compared to 22% and 2% for Asia Pacific excluding China, and 15% and 8% for Latin America.
“The impact of the recent writers’ and actors’ strikes on the release calendar, in terms of global-appeal Hollywood product, has been significant,” said Rob Mitchell, director of theatrical insights at Gower Street. “That is the key driver of this slight regression in recovery momentum we’re seeing in 2024 that looks to postpone any chance of returning to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.”
Mitsinkos said Gower Street expects 2025 “to be a very good year… and hopefully a positive trend-setter for the second half of this decade”, according to “productions currently on our radar”.
Gower Street noted China’s comparatively strong outlook is due to its lesser reliance on Hollywood product; although it adds that the limited release calendar makes the market the hardest to predict.
Final 2023 figures will be released by Gower Street in the first week of January. The year has been buoyed by two major summer releases: Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, which has $1.4bn to date; and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, which is up to $951m.
Major releases set for 2024 include Todd Phillips’ sequel Joker: Folie à Deux, scheduled for release on October 4, 2024 through Warner Bros.
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