Voting for the Bafta Film Awards has now closed, and the ceremony is this weekend. Screen International’s UK awards team discuss who will — and should — win the major prizes.
This year’s awards season began with strong contenders from major filmmakers, launched at A-list festivals including Cannes and Venice. In Barbie and Oppenheimer, there were also those rare creatures: huge box-office hits from auteur filmmakers, commanding respect from industry practitioners and critics, and holding sway with audiences.
As the season has progressed, it seems that Oppenheimer has pulled ahead of the chasing pack — but even if it wins some top prizes, will it really sweep the Baftas and Oscar across all its nominated categories?
Now that voting has closed for the Bafta Film Awards, Screen International assembled its UK awards team to discuss how we think the prizes could go, and should go, at the London ceremony on February 18.
Best film and director
Matt Mueller (editor): It’s an incredibly strong year across the board. However, my sense is that Oppenheimer is pulling away in best film, it’s got the momentum. Killers Of The Flower Moon may have been the early favourite, but seems to have faded a bit. Anatomy Of A Fall is the interesting one — could we see history repeat, and have a second consecutive foreign-language winner in this category following All Quiet On The Western Front?
Charles Gant (awards issues editor): Had Anatomy Of A Fall racked up a lot more craft nominations, and demonstrated real strength across the whole voting cohort, I’d be believing more that this could happen. But because it didn’t figure much in craft, only casting and editing, it does seem a high mountain to climb for it. All Quiet had an incredible sweep of nominations.
Fionnuala Halligan (executive editor, reviews and new talent): The Bafta membership is very diverse and varied across television, film and video games, so let’s be mindful of that. It delights me intensely that Anatomy Of A Fall has made it this far. Poor Things, that feels most likely to win for leading actress Emma Stone — but for best film, has it got the consensus that it would need? The Holdovers is incredibly popular among the membership, but I don’t see it passing Oppenheimer. Killers Of The Flower Moon, the longer it sits out there… the argument gets less wholly enthusiastic than it was in Cannes last May.
Louise Tutt (deputy editor): Yes, it feels like the momentum has gone from Killers Of The Flower Moon, at least at Bafta. It might be a different story at the Oscars because it’s such an American story.
Gant: Okay, it’s producers who are nominated in best film, but four of these filmmakers are coming off losses in the category… and it’s the first nomination for a Justine Triet film. Martin Scorsese, Yorgos Lanthimos, Christopher Nolan and Alexander Payne — their last films that achieved best film Bafta nominations all lost. You have to go back to 2005, and Scorsese’s The Aviator, to see a best film win from a director whose film is nominated here. Nolan has never won best film, and never won director — he lost both times he was nominated, with Dunkirk and Inception. It’s going to be his night, isn’t it?
Mueller: If there was ever a chance for Bafta to recognise Nolan in a substantial way, it’s this year.
Tutt: In terms of pure enjoyment, The Holdovers is just the perfect film. It’s enjoyable, satisfying, rich, interesting, funny.
Mueller: I love the mad vision of Poor Things, but I wonder if it has better chances in other categories.
Halligan: For director, should we be considering Justine Triet, Christopher Nolan and Alexander Payne as Bafta’s three main nominees, in that their films are also best film nominees while the other directors’ films aren’t.
Tutt: That also speaks to the strength of Anatomy Of A Fall and The Holdovers in the best film category — there could be an upset there.
Mueller: To your point, Finn, at Bafta the best film and best director winner have aligned for the last five years. The last time it deviated was 2018, when Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won best film, and Guillermo del Toro won director for The Shape Of Water. If people are going to vote Oppenheimer best film, history shows they will probably vote for Christopher Nolan in director.
Outstanding British film
Gant: I’ve been chatting to some of these nominated filmmakers, and people reckon Poor Things has the strongest chance of winning. There is some question about how British that film is. In Emma Stone’s pre-filmed acceptance speech at the London Critics’ Film Awards, she seemed to emphasise the film’s Britishness by paying tribute to the British and Irish crew and department heads. That led to a certain amount of eye-rolling from other British filmmakers afterwards. All Of Us Strangers is a fantastic film, an incontestably British film, and I’d love to see it win.
Halligan: All Of Us Strangers might surprise us and win because there’s a sense of shock, disappointment and sadness that Andrew Scott didn’t get a leading actor nomination. That might further motivate people to support it.
Tutt: I very much like the low-budget UK films in this category, the ones developed by UK creatives, and it’s heartening they are at least in the room. I hope they get a lot of exposure in the TV broadcast.
Mueller: I feel like Poor Things has the edge in this category, but I would not be surprised to see Saltburn or All Of Us Strangers pull off an upset. The Zone Of Interest is an interesting one, because in every category it’s facing up against some other strong contenders, so I wonder how people will look to recognise that film. Maybe people rally behind it here — and also sound.
Best film not in the English language
Gant: We’ve got disparity between this and the equivalent Oscar category, because of the different processes, so it feels very competitive — with Anatomy Of A Fall and Past Lives in the mix. Three of these films are nominated in other major categories, and even 20 Days In Mariupol has a second nomination. The only one that hasn’t is Society Of The Snow.
Halligan: With The Zone Of Interest and Anatomy Of A Fall, you have a replay of Cannes Competition — they won the top two prizes there — plus Past Lives, which people love. It’s hard to call, but this is a great category.
Mueller: I see this category as a two-horse race between Anatomy Of A Fall and The Zone Of Interest. Bafta voters will not want to leave these films unrecognised in some way, so this is a chance where they can express support for one or the other.
Best documentary
Mueller: I think Wham! has this one sewn up. I’m joking, by the way.
Tutt: Beyond Utopia is so fantastic. That’s my favourite.
Gant: I’m just baffled that it didn’t make it through at the Oscars. The Oscars have nominated five very interesting films, for sure. I understand why some of the hotly tipped celebrity-based films didn’t make it – but Beyond Utopia is a film that ought to have chimed with the Ampas documentary chapter voters.
Halligan: I’m hoping that Bafta voters rally behind it. You don’t often see an achievement like this. It was such a difficult thing to make for everyone involved, and the more you read about it, the more you hear about the journey of everyone involved in it, the more you think like: wow, it’s pretty exceptional.
Mueller: Director Madeleine Gavin had no idea how it was all going to unfold, or whether the people involved were ever going to sign the rights over. The story of the film is as amazing as the film itself.
Gant: But we have to recognise that 20 Days In Mariupol has got to be a strong contender. The subject feels important. Navalny won last year. People will want to recognise the rigour of it – all raw footage from the city under siege – and it feels like an important film.
Best actress, actor, supporting actress and supporting actor
Gant: For leading actor you’ve got a number of first-time nominees. Cillian Murphy has only been Bafta-nominated before for rising star, and a TV Bafta. Colman Domingo and Teo Yoo are first-time nominees and surprisingly so is Paul Giamatti — he was not nominated for Sideways.
Mueller: This category smacks me in the face because I still can’t get over Andrew Scott not being here. It’s an awful omission. So I want to put a protest vote in for Scott in this category. Of the actual nominees, I feel like Oppenheimer has a lot of momentum, and Cillian has so many fans, both for the film but also for his whole career including on TV. I also love Paul Giamatti and he really brings The Holdovers together: he’s so fantastically funny and affecting and full of pathos at the same time.
Halligan: I wish Andrew Scott was in, but that’s not to diminish Cillian or Paul who are my two favourites among the nominees.
Tutt: The other missing person from this category for me is Jeffrey Wright from American Fiction. The film was woefully overlooked throughout all these nominations. But I would be amazed if Cillian doesn’t win this.
Gant: For leading actress, three of these women are nominated for an Oscar — Sandra Hüller, Carey Mulligan and Emma Stone — and the other three are not, so that says something.
Tutt: Sandra is my favourite performance. I liked Vivian Oparah and Rye Lane very much, but I don’t think this is going to be her year. Carey Mulligan, yes, Maestro was really her film as well, but I’m not sure there’s much momentum behind her.
Halligan: I would love Sandra to win, but it’s likely to be Emma. It’s not just the fact that Emma gives a great performance, she’s credited by all her collaborators as being a person who has been a key part of the creative process. Then again, the part in Anatomy Of A Fall was written for Sandra Hüller… but I don’t think that’s as well known.
Mueller: There’s so much that goes into Emma’s performance in Poor Things, from the physical aspects to the bravery and audacity of it. I think it’s a showdown between Sandra and Emma, with Emma having the edge.
Gant: Had Lily Gladstone been nominated, what do we think would happen — now that everyone is getting to vote in the category, whereas before it was just actors and then a jury?
Mueller: She wasn’t popular enough among the actors or the jury to achieve a nomination, despite all the acclaim and the frontrunner status she’s enjoyed for months. So had she been nominated in this category, I don’t think she would have won.
Tutt: For me, again, it speaks to Killers Of The Flower Moon being a very American story and tapping into a very American moment in time. It’s not one that UK voters wouldn’t recognise or respect, but I don’t think it has the emotion behind it over here.
Halligan: For supporting actress, The Zone Of Interest’s Sandra Hüller may suffer from a vote split between people who vote for her here and in leading actress. So I think it belongs to Rosamund Pike for Saltburn — she’ll be a popular vote among the wider membership. For supporting actor, wouldn’t it be so sad if Ryan Gosling got the only Barbie win? Wouldn’t it say it all?
Tutt: Robert Downey Jr has to be the favourite in supporting actor. Nobody’s taking that off him.
Mueller: For me these are the two categories where at the end of the season, we all say, “Of course, it was always going to be Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Robert Downey Jr. There was never going to be anybody else.”
Gant: These look like two categories where Oscar and Bafta will match up. Da’Vine, if you love The Holdovers, this is where you can rally around the flag. Emily Blunt is apparently considered the strongest competition to Da’Vine among Ampas voters…
Tutt: I think Emily could cause an upset — if there’s an Oppenheimer sweep. I thought she was really good in the role.
Gant: Supporting actor — in answer to Finn’s point, I do think Ryan was gifted the most interesting part in Barbie, his character had this amazing arc. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach were very generous in what they handed to him. But also Paul Mescal for All Of Us Strangers, I don’t count him out. People upset about Andrew Scott might rally to Paul, and it’s an incredible performance.
Mueller: People might say the person who should be winning for this film was Andrew Scott. Would they want to then single out another performance that isn’t the one that powers this film and makes it so extraordinary?
Original and adapted screenplay
Mueller: In adapted screenplay, I know we’re talking about Oppenheimer having the momentum and possibly doing a big sweep, but I could see Andrew Haigh scoring for All Of Us Strangers. And you can’t rule out Poor Things.
Tutt: I reckon it will almost certainly be Oppenheimer for best adapted. But I also like very much that Cord Jefferson is nominated for American Fiction — it’s an incredible adaptation of the book Erasure. In original screenplay I am so pleased Barbie is nominated, for the sheer audacity of what Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach ran with.
Mueller: Six months ago Past Lives felt like it was going to be a massive Bafta and Oscar contender, and it has done well in nominations. It affects people in such a strong way, and people who love it absolutely adore it. But maybe it peaked too early, and there are other contenders that have passed it at this stage.
Gant: That’s right about timing, and it’s ridiculous because we should just be looking at the films — but it does feel like the momentum of that campaign flagged. And what do we feel about Maestro, which is Netflix’s big nominations success this award season? Could it repeat The Irishman, and win multiple nominations but then not convert them into wins? It’s not obvious which category Maestro wins, apart from make-up and hair.
Mueller: And if so, it would be because it’s such a strong year. It’s great it achieved as many nominations as it did, but it may struggle to win outside of make-up.
Gant: There’s a great story about Bradley Cooper’s incredible immersion, and the lengths that he went to, and the time spent working on the accent. In awards season, people often latch onto a compelling narrative, and we saw that last year with Ke Huy Quan and Everything Everywhere All At Once. But I haven’t really had the sense of people being enthused and excited by the journey Bradley went on.
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