Which films at the fall festivals could go on to become awards contenders?

It is early fall festival season and time to dust off the glad rags, polish the crystal ball, extract meaning from timed standing ovations and savour what promises to be another busy awards cycle.

Last season, Sean Baker’s Anora, backed by Neon, went all the way from the Cannes 2024 Palme d’Or ceremony to the 97th Academy Awards earlier this year. It won five major Oscars including best picture and flew the flag for independent cinema, in stark contrast to the previous year’s champion Oppenheimer from Universal.

Two box-office hits from the first half of the year with strong prospects are Ryan Coogler’s Sinners at Warner Bros and Apple Original Films’ F1 — aka F1: The Movie — from Joseph Kosinski (distributed theatrically by Warner Bros). These expertly crafted juggernauts will hope to follow recent commercial and critical success stories Oppenheimer, Wicked and the Dune films, which by and large eschewed festival fanfare. (The first Dune premiered in Venice, the second did not — both won Oscars.)

This year’s Cannes produced several strong arthouse contenders. Joachim Trier’s grand prize winner and all-category contender Sentimental Value is at Neon, which also has more-focused prospects such as Kleber Mendonca Filho’s The Secret Agent starring the festival’s best actor winner Wagner Moura, and Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner It Was Just An Accident. Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love was snapped up by Mubi for North America and multiple territories in a $24m statement buy that will push lead Jennifer Lawrence.

Given the US Academy’s growing international inflection, and CEO Bill Kramer’s ongoing outreach through international member events in recent years in Cannes, Venice and London, major category slots are opening up to talent who are not American or British — as seen with directing Oscar nods for French filmmakers Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, and lead actress recognition for Fernanda Torres from Brazil’s I’m Still Here and Karla Sofia Gascon for France’s Emilia Pérez, whose campaign imploded after social media posts resurfaced. This year, sources say Neon’s goals will include a directing nod for Trier and acting recognition for Moura.

Competition builds

Much of the allure of awards season derives from watching films of different shapes and sizes carve out a path to recognition. “It’s great for cinema,” one awards consultant says of the different tiers of companies submitting films for consideration. “Outside of the studios and streamers there are lots of different entities that are getting into the awards space.”

How deep any awards hopeful goes into the season hinges not just on the campaign, but the quality of the competition — and there is plenty of pedigree debuting in the fall festival trifecta of Venice Film Festival (August 27-September 6), Telluride Film Festival (August 29-September 1), and Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF, September 4-14).

Venice has raised its game over the past decade with ever more glamorous selections and red carpets overflowing with A-­listers. Awards sources who spoke to Screen International believe it will reclaim its position at the top of the pile after ceding primacy to Cannes last season, when Anora, The Substance, Flow and Emilia Pérez combined for 26 Oscar nominations and nine wins, eclipsing four wins from 13 nods for Albert Barbera’s Lido luminaries The Brutalist and I’m Still Here.

A cascade of world premieres on the Lido brings two directors of former Golden Lion winners flying under the Focus Features banner. Two years after Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos reunites on Bugonia with Emma Stone, who won her second lead actress Oscar for the 2023 film and will be one to watch in the story of conspiracy fanatics adapted from the South Korean sci-fi comedy Save The Green Planet!.

Chloé Zhao, whose Nomadland won the Italian festival’s top prize in 2020, is back in Venice with Hamnet starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal as the grief-stricken Shakespeares, dealing with the death at the age of 11 of their titular son.

Netflix sits out Cannes due to theatrical exhibition rules governing Competition entries and usually reserves its prestige slate for Venice. This year the streamer will arrive with three films. Frankenstein starring Oscar Isaac hails from the Mexican maestro Guillermo del Toro, who won the 2017 Golden Lion with The Shape Of Water en route to the best picture Oscar.

The streamer has also secured world premieres for Noah Baumbach’s third Venice film, the comedy drama Jay Kelly starring George Clooney and Adam Sandler; and White House thriller A House Of Dynamite with Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson from Kathryn Bigelow, a former best director Oscar winner for The Hurt Locker.

A24 brings biopic The Smashing Machine, Benny Safdie’s first solo directing gig that stars Dwayne Johnson as UFC fighter Mark Kerr. Johnson is being positioned for awards and will take part in an on-stage conversation in TIFF where the film gets its North American premiere.

Mona Fastvold’s Shaker Movement biopic The Testament Of Ann Lee starring Amanda Seyfried is an acquisition title, and Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother at Mubi stars Cate Blanchett.

Among the out-of-competition entries are former Silver Lion best director winner Luca Guadagnino making his latest trip to the Lido with dramatic thriller After The Hunt starring Julia Roberts and Andrew Garfield for Amazon MGM Studios (Sony distributes internationally); Julian Schnabel’s ensemble crime drama In The Hand Of Dante led by Oscar Isaac; and Gus Van Sant’s true-crime story Dead Man’s Wire with Bill Skarsgard. The latter two are both sales titles.

Timely classics

Telluride is known for its timely, tightly curated programme and it is where Edward Berger debuted his Vatican thriller Conclave, which eventually won the best adapted screenplay Oscar for Peter Straughan. The Colorado Rockies festival was due to unveil its line-up after press time, although it is understood Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen drama Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere — at Disney-owned 20th Century Studios and starring The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White — was lined up for a world premiere.

“Venice is starting to feel more American in its programming, which plays well for press coverage,” notes an awards specialist. Selections from Venice often travel to have their North American premiere at TIFF, which prides itself on amassing a sumptuous selection of the year’s best cinema from around the world.

CEO Cameron Bailey, chief programming officer Anita Lee and their team have landed several coups: Nicholas Hytner reunites with Ralph Fiennes on The Choral at Sony Pictures Classics; Hedda is Nia DaCosta’s adaptation of Henrik Ibsen’s play Hedda Gabler starring Tessa Thompson for Amazon MGM Studios; and Hikari’s Searchight Pictures feelgood drama Rental Family stars Brendan Fraser. Searchlight will also be pushing Bradley Cooper’s comedy drama Is This Thing On? starring Will Arnett and Laura Dern, which opens on October 10.

As well as its high-flying Venice trio, Netflix is betting too on gambler drama Ballad Of A Small Player from Berger, which stars Colin Farrell and is also anticipated to premiere at Telluride, and Rian Johnson’s who­dunnit Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery led by Daniel Craig. Apple has Paul Greengrass’s true-life California wildfire drama The Lost Bus starring Matthew Mc­Conaughey and America Ferrera.

TIFF world premieres seeking US distribution that could pop include David Michod’s boxing biopic Christy starring Sydney Sweeney; and comedy Driver’s Ed from Bobby Farrelly. Many selections in Toronto will be vying for the TIFF People’s Choice Award, whose winners have garnered a best picture Oscar nomination in 14 out of the last 16 years, with several like 12 Years A Slave and The King’s Speech going on to win.

New York Film Festival (September 27-October 13) will host the world premiere of Anemone, directed by Ronan Day-Lewis and featuring the return of his father — three-time lead actor Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis — opposite Sean Bean in a drama about brothers.

BFI London Film Festival (October 8-19) and AFI FEST in Los Angeles (October 22-26) are likely to corral selections from earlier festivals alongside new world premieres.

Landing a prestige slot at a respected festival outside the Cannes-Venice-Telluride-TIFF axis can play a vital role in an awards campaign. London will open with the international premiere of Wake Up Dead Man, while Park Chan-wook’s dark comedy and Venice premiere No Other Choice, which Neon has for North America, will open Busan International Film Festival on September 17.

Awards consultants cite Tokyo, Camerimage in Poland, Adelaide and Mar del Plata as further opportunities to build positive buzz on a film. “There are a lot of big films this year, and [there will be] discoveries,” one says. “You need these other festivals to raise the profile.”

The latter stages of the year bring Paul Thomas Anderson’s dark comedy One Battle After Another from Warner Bros starring Leonardo DiCaprio; Universal’s Wicked: For Good from Jon M Chu, the follow-­up to last year’s double Oscar winner for production design and costume design; and James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire And Ash at 20th Century Studios.

The list includes Josh Safdie’s comedy Marty Supreme at A24 starring Timothée Chalamet, who is eager to work with the best and declared from an awards show stage last season: “I’m in pursuit of greatness […] I want to be one of the greats.” 

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