Film data and insights specialist Gower Street Analytics has revised upwards its 2024 box office global forecast, bringing it to $32.3bn from an initial projection of $31.5bn.
This is thanks to box office for the first quarter running 1% ahead of Gower Street’s projections in the domestic market (US and Canada) and in China. For the international market excluding China projections were 11% ahead of estimates.
The forecast has also been propelled by titles being added to the release calendar since the first projection was announced in December, with the likes of Dev Patel’s Monkey Man being confirmed for theatrical release via Universal on April 5 as of January, after it was originally set up at Netflix.
Gower Street acknowledged its revision represented only a “marginal increase” but stressed it is notable as “the increase would have been greater were it not for exchange rate changes between December and now essentially wiping out over a third of the gains seen collectively across international markets”.
A $32.3bn global box office in 2024 would represent an approximate 5% decrease year-on-year (a 3% decrease at current exchange rates) from 2023. The 2024 revised estimate is 18% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
Overall the revised projection reflects what Gower Street views as “modest” gains of approximately $200m in the domestic market and $550m in the international market (excluding China), and remains relatively static for China. China is the only one of the three key markets projected to see a year-on-year improvement.
This projection, calculated utilising data from Gower Street’s flagship Forecast service and analyst assessment, is based on the current release calendar.
The announcement comes as the global industry gathers in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, running April 8-11.
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